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Market Review: Africa: A Look at Nigeria’s 2011 Elections
Nigeria completed its 2011 elections on April 26th with the gubernatorial and state legislature polls, having held the presidential elections on April 9th and the federal legislature elections on April 16th.
The presidential election results were in-line with expectations. The incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was re-elected with 59% share of the 38.2 million votes cast versus Nigeria’s former military ruler, General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), who won 32% of the votes.
The legislative elections however, brought a reduction in the ruling PDP’s dominance of the National Assembly. Although the PDP still maintains a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the PDP’s percentage has been reduced from 77% to 60%. At the state level, further reduction in the PDP’s leadership took place as the elections resulted in the PDP losing 20% of its gubernatorial seats to the minority parties, but still maintaining control of 50% of the 36 states.
Overall the elections are seen as the most credible, free and fair elections in recent Nigerian history. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was praised for its organization and preparation of the polls, and independent observers declared all three elections free and fair, a major step forward for the Nigerian electorate process.
For his part, President Jonathan has also been given credit for showing that an incumbent President can actually allow the INEC to execute its duties without interference from the executive arm of the government. In spite of these positive steps forward, the elections have not been free of violence. Following the announcement of the Presidential election results, violence broke out in the North as supporters of one of the losing parties turned their frustrations on Christians and Southerners living in the North. The crisis in the North was particularly bad in Kaduna, Bauchi, Maiduguri and Kano as misguided youth reacted to the results by burning houses and killing people.
Following the initial explosion of violence in the North after the announcement of the Presidential results, there was relative calm within those northern states after the gubernatorial and state legislature elections. The initial violence may have been in part attributable to an unofficial “requirement” within the PDP party that the Nigerian presidency would be rotated every eight years between the Northern Muslim and the Southern Christian regions. With the early demise of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010, who hailed from the Muslim North, and the swearing in of his Southern Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, Northern politicians felt cheated out of their full eight years on the Presidential seat. Even though the President won his party’s primary election by a landslide victory, there was strong resentment in the North, still seething from the perceived betrayal by the South.
The CPC party is claiming election irregularities and could possibly take to the courts to challenge the results. This challenge is unlikely to be successful as Goodluck Jonathan’s margin of victory was wide and it is highly improbable that the CPC candidate would have garnered a significant amount of votes in the South-South and South-East regions in which they allege election fraud. Furthermore, the electoral appeal process has been shortened and must be completed before the May 29th inauguration date, a fact which adds to the low probability of the election results being overturned. General Buhari, the CPC candidate, has openly stated that he will not participate in any lawsuits regarding the Presidential election results.
Though people in the North dissatisfied with the results of the Presidential election resorted to violence, it is unlikely to have a major impact on the overall political stability of the country. We expect little to no impact on Nigeria’s economy in the short-term with daily oil production currently at a high of almost 2.5 million barrels per day. Given that the ruling party maintained its hold on the presidency as well as its majority in the National Assembly (both in the Senate and the House) we see no significant negative impact to the legislative process and the support for the executive branch and President Jonathan’s agenda.
Nevertheless, the reduction in the PDP’s stranglehold on the National Assembly is a positive sign for Nigeria’s budding democracy as it indicates a reduction in the power and influence of the dominating PDP party, while establishing stronger opposition parties in both the CPC and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). The implication of the increased number of opposition members is that there will be more robust debate in the National Assembly.
Permanent Address: http://zephyrmanagement.com/reviews/africa-a-look-at-nigerias-2011-elections/
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